The economy continues to improve, with yr/yr growth curves rising and the estimated timing for the next high in the first quarter of 2011. The forecast model has been modified, moving the next (mild) low to mid-2010 promptly followed by steady gains through 2013.   The recession may be over, but now we are dealing with the hangover following heavy stimulus spending. While the stimulus program is currently politically much maligned, studies are showing that the extra government money and buy-outs probably kept the economy from dropping into another Great Depression. Even with the stimulus influx, the recession was the most serious in decades and the recovery will take more time than an impatient public would like.

For some time the forecast model has called for a cyclical high in early 2011. With that timing for the yr/yr growth curve, monthly data should start slowing in mid-2010. This is occurring on schedule, but numbers for June and July have been a little lower than expected. This is probably the result of the end of the significant push by the stimulus money; now that the economy is peddling pretty much on its own it will take time to get up to speed. The slower June and July does not change the timing for the turning point high, but it does lower the amplitude for some series. The notable exception is industrial production, which is recovering at a solid steady pace.

To view the full Economic Forecast and graphs, log in to MyMTI and click on August Economic Forecast in the Featured Resources box. 

Over the course of the past few months, MTI has been taking a close look at the current Statement of Limited Liability (SLL) to look at any recommendations that may be needed to strengthen an already powerful member benefit.  The Board recently appointed a Task Force to work with Mr. Jerry Anders, a liability attorney from Pennsylvania who is very familiar with the heat treating industry and MTI's SLL to look at a proposed review.  The last review was performed in 2002.   We would like to report that the Board of Trustees has formerly accepted the recommendation of the Task Force to accept Mr. Ander's proposal to review and strengthen the SLL.  Mr. Anders was key in fending off a $5,000,000 liability lawsuit against an MTI member where the SLL was a key document that stood the legal test.  Leadership anticipates the review to take 3 to 4 months with a final document being available approximately January 1.  Mr. Anders will also deliver a set of "best practices" every member should play close attention to in having the proper documentation to protect yourself from a liability lawsuit.  We will keep the membership advised as to the progress of the review as we know many of you print the SLL on numerous forms. 

If you are not using the MTI SLL, you should be.  It has saved members tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars in lawsuits. 

When we feel we are getting close to the end of the review, we will let members know so you can prepare for the new document.  If you have any questions, please feel free to contact Tom Morrison at 904-249-0448 or This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Now these are the types of numbers we love to see in our industry.  MTI is happy to report that year-to-date sales for the Metal Treating Industry for July 2010 equaled $438.7 million, a growth of 20.8% from 2009 when sales for January-July amounted to $363.3 million.  July billings totaled $64.3 million, an increase of 41.8% compared to July 2009 when bills amounted to $45.3 million.  All districts outperformed their July 2009 sales and all but one district out did their year-to-date sales for 2010.  The 5-year trend graph has definitely taken a positive turn upward and is heading back toward the levels experienced in 2008.  The latest MTI Quarterly Heat Treating Forecast projected year end sales to be approximately 23% above sales in 2009.  With the industry already sitting at 20% growth, we would expect that projection to rise in the next quarterly forecast.

If you are not participating in the monthly sales forecast program, you are truly missing out on one of the greatest financial management benefits in MTI.  It's easy to enroll and participate.  If you would like more information, contact Carla Quimby at 904-249-0448 or This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it   If you would like to see the detailed summary of this months figures, log in to MyMTI and Click on the Sales Stats Report in the Featured Resources Box.